Northwest Rut Report Season Kickoff: Deer Numbers are Up and so is Fire Danger

Mention the word “rut” to a hunter in the Northwest this time of year and without question you’ll be hit with a story that involves bugles. Across the West, bowhunters are still busy chasing elk with the rut in full swing. But as the calendar moves deeper into October, the elk are beginning to quiet and the hunters are shifting focus.

It was a scorching summer in the Northwest, and while the leaves are turning, the temperatures still aren’t dropping. While extremely hot summers, filled with multiple days of triple digits, can bring epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHD) outbreaks, biologists aren’t reporting any at this time. That could be due to the drought conditions that plagued Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming in recent years weren’t as bad this year thanks to a near-average wet spring.

The hot, dry summer didn’t come without complications. Fuel accumulations and hot, windy weather created the perfect storm for a rough fire season. Southeast Montana and Northern Wyoming saw horrific wildfires that displaced people and wildlife. Despite it being October, fire danger remains high. Before hunters head out, they should look at the latest fire restrictions and keep an eye out for closures due to wildfires in the area. With hot, windy weather in the forecast, it’s essential to be careful.

In 2023, deer hunters were up against low deer numbers across most of the Northwest. The winter of 2022-2023 was extremely hard, in some cases catastrophic, on both whitetail and mule deer populations. In the Wyoming Range, 80 percent of adult deer and nearly every fawn died. In Idaho, the rough winter was reflected in a 22 percent harvest drop statewide last year for mule deer.

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Luckily, for wildlife and hunters, the 2023-2024 winter was much milder. While it takes a few years for populations to truly rebound, deer numbers are looking much better this year. While many populations remain below average, hunters in those districts will find a corresponding reduction in hunting opportunities.

In Southeast Montana, mule deer densities improved by 20 percent from 2023, but the population is still about 40 percent below the long-term average. The mule deer population in Montana’s famed Missouri River Breaks is also significantly lower due to the slow recovery from droughts and rough winters. Whitetail populations in Southeast Montana are still recovering from devastating outbreaks of EHD in 2021.

In Wyoming, mule deer populations are well below management goals across the entire state. Biologists attribute this to years of droughts, winterkill, changes in habitat conditions, and increased predation. Whitetails are still rebounding from outbreaks of EHD in 2021 and 2022. However, thanks to a mild winter and a wet spring, deer numbers are much better than a year ago.

Idaho Fish & Game is expecting increased harvest this year after “suffering from one of the worst winters on record in 2023.” Mule deer were hit the hardest, but biologists report they’re gradually increasing. Fish and Game biologists captured and collared 217 mule deer fawns and 168 does in early winter. Of those collared, 77 percent of fawns and 95 percent of does survived until at least spring.

Idaho’s whitetails are the biggest success story. The 2023 harvest was actually up 3 percent from 2022. In fact, last fall, hunters killed more whitetails than the mule deer. It’s only the sixth time that’s happened since Idaho Fish & Game started tracking data in 1975.