Realtree's Deer Hunting Forecast: October 11-17

The weather forecast alone won’t tell you what the deer will be doing this weekend. But combining that information with Realtree’s Rut Report and Fish & Game Forecaster can certainly help you make a plan. Our weekly Rut Report utilizes real deer hunters living in every region of the country. These reporters spend all fall networking with guides, biologists, Realtree pros, and avid local hunters to get the most up-to-date local information possible. Sure, we call it the Rut Report, but we post updates on deer activity from mid-October through mid-December, meaning we’re keeping track not only of rubs, scrapes, and estrous does, but mast conditions, EHD, and late-season patterns, too.

So if you’re going hunting this week, from October 11 to 17, what can you expect? Well, any time that you can spend in the stand is better than time spent on the couch. But from the moon phase and weather forecast to the time of year to the overall vibe from our Rut Reporters, we give this week’s deer hunting forecast 3 out of 5 stars. Let’s dig in to why.

MOON AND WEATHER

Bright moons in early October can lead to tough hunting, especially when combined with above-average temperatures. This year, the full moon hits on October 17 and 18. Weekend hunters can expect a waxing gibbous moon on the 12th and 13th. Our Fish & Game forecaster predicts peaks in activity on Saturday at around 10 a.m., and again at around 4 p.m.

Later in the week, the moon forecast calls for several spikes in mid-morning and midday activity, with peak activity on Thursday in the early afternoon. Of course, moon phase is but one piece of the puzzle to consider when it comes to deer movement. Temperatures have been seasonal to slightly above average for the past several days in most of the eastern U.S., and areas of the Southeast are still reeling from the effects of two major hurricanes. But a major cold front is forecast mid-week, and temperatures are set to plummet. Many areas of the Midwest and Northeast should see a heavy frost. Try to hunt those days if possible, especially in the evenings. Pre-rut activity will be picking up, but your best odds for seeing a big buck are still around primary food sources.

REGIONAL UPDATES

Across most of whitetail country, deer are still in early season patterns, and in some areas, bachelor groups are still intact. Still, rubs and scrapes are showing up, and the excitement of the rut is only weeks away. Midwest Regional reporter Darron McDougal, who’s based in Wisconsin, says he’s had trail cameras set over mock scrapes for a few weeks but so far, the activity there has been slow. The real action is on freshly harvested corn fields, any soybeans that are still green, and especially on acorns. For this week’s report, McDougal interviewed sources in Wisconsin, North Dakota, Iowa, Michigan, and more. READ THE FULL MIDWEST REPORT HERE

Southeast Regional reporter Stephanie Mallory is based in Alabama. Many of the hunters she spoke to were still reeling from the effects of Hurricane Helene, which dramatically impacted several states in the region (and Hurricane Milton hit after Mallory had filed her first report). Even in areas that weren’t directly hit by the storms, high winds and rain caused an inordinate number of acorns to hit the ground early. Farther west, a long dry spell had exacerbated conditions for EHD, and a few reporters in Kentucky and Tennessee had found some dead deer. But overall, deer hunting conditions across the Southeast are right on schedule. Look for early firearm and muzzleloader seasons to be opening soon in several states. READ THE FULL SOUTHEAST REPORT HERE

Up in the Northeast Region, reporter Timothy Kent recounted several tales of early-season success among his network of contacts, including a big 10-pointer taken by a bowhunter in Jefferson County, New York. Corn and soybean fields are being cut early in some places, causing deer movement to become more predictable. Kent reports a hit-and-miss mast crop, with some areas loaded with white and red oak acorns, while others are pretty sparse. Rubs are showing up with some frequency along with a few early scrapes, though the best bet for hunting right now is still by patterning a buck on a food source. READ THE FULL NORTHEAST RUT REPORT HERE

Southwest Region reporter Miles Fedinec is a guide and outfitter for elk, mule deer, and antelope in southwest Colorado, but he spends a portion of his season chasing whitetails in Texas, too. He says the elk rut is still going but definitely starting to wane. Many bulls have busted racks from fighting and are beginning to retire to the deep timber. During this opening report, Fedinec does some great reporting on a number of regulatory updates for states across the West including in Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah. Though the mule deer and whitetail ruts are still weeks away in most of the Southwest, blacktails are on fire in areas of Coastal California. READ THE FULL SOUTHWEST REGION RUT REPORT HERE

Northwest reporter Jackie Holbrook is an Alaska native who now lives in Montana. Her region was hit especially hard by the brutal winter of 2022-23, which killed 80% of the deer herd in some areas. Fortunately, last winter was much milder, and many of Holbrook’s contacts were more optimistic, though it’ll take years for herd numbers to completely rebound. Elk remain the focus right now for many hunters in the Northwest, but mule deer and whitetails are certainly on the radar. Holbrook says it’s been hot and dry in parts of the region so far, but contacts aren’t reporting EHD outbreaks so far. Holbrook touches on conditions in Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho for this opening report. READ THE FULL NORTHWEST REGION REPORT HERE